The travel industry went into 2025 riding a wave of optimism, with analysts projecting strong growth across airlines, hotels, and cruises. But as we enter the critical holiday booking window, the story the real-time data tells is more complex, and for marketers, more interesting. Travelers are pivoting from premium impulse to strategic value shopping, giving marketers key insights into their 2025 holiday season tendencies.
Let’s look at the data: Through July, Sojern’s data shows that hotel bookings in the US are down 11% year-to-date, flights have slipped 2%, and yet cruises are sailing in the opposite direction, on track to host a staggering 37.7 million passengers. The takeaway? Consumers are still spending on travel, but they’re spending differently. They’re not abandoning experiences—they’re just choosing them with far more precision.
Now, with the Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Travel Tuesday trifecta right around the corner, travelers are more deal-conscious than ever. At Sojern, our custom audiences using traveler intent data enable us to understand what travelers want earlier—and create curated campaigns that resonate and drive bookings.
Here’s how to entice choosy travelers this season to win in Q4.
The pandemic era and immediate rebound years saw travelers splurge for the destinations they’d missed, paying premiums for hotels and flights without much hesitation. In 2024, our data showed that luxury hotel rates rose 1.4%, upscale rates were up 1.7%, and travelers happily paid. Remember when hotel room prices spiked 154% during the Taylor Swift Eras Tour and still sold out? That dynamic is shifting.
This year, travelers are more cautious, with 45% choosing destinations where they can maximize points and rewards. What’s more, our hotel data shows that 43% of domestic hotel bookings now happen within seven days of arrival, signaling travelers are on the hunt for last-minute deals rather than long-lead luxury planning.
Sojern’s summer travel data shows a simultaneous rise in two areas: “coolcations” and cruises. As travelers look to escape extreme heat, searches for cooler destinations like Iceland, Scotland, Finland, are up 300%. At the same time, the cruise industry is experiencing a surge not seen in decades, with growth rates over 7% annually and 82% of passengers planning to cruise again.
What’s driving the overlap? Value and predictability. International hotel bookings are down 16%, but cruises bundle transportation, lodging, dining, and entertainment into one price—removing cost uncertainty from the equation.
The November deal window is especially potent here. While travelers are booking their coolcation summer packages early, Travel Tuesday cruise packages offering shoulder season itineraries—think April and September—to Alaska or Northern Europe could merge with the coolcation trend with the all-inclusive pricing advantage. Given that 72% of Millennial parents are willing to take their children out of school to travel during the off-season, this makes for an easy, high-conversion pitch to shore up incremental bookings.
The intention gap is another Q4 storyline worth watching. 58% of Millennials and Gen Z parents say they plan multi-generational trips. In reality? Solo travel is projected to grow by just over 14% annually, reaching $1.07 trillion annually.
For marketers, that’s a wake-up call: multi-gen might dominate the headlines, but they can’t afford to ignore solo travelers. Currently, female solo travel is on the rise, with 77% saying that price is one of the top two factors that influenced their purchasing decisions. Peak shopping events like Black Friday and Travel Tuesday aren’t just for holiday gifts, they’re an opportunity for marketers to entice solo travelers to snap up last-minute winter escapes.
While the beach may be a distant memory for some travelers, others are already in the planning stages for their next trip. For families, travel plans align with school breaks, doubling in July and August. They’re willing to pay a premium for peak season, spending an average of $2,626 per trip. By engaging these travelers with family-focused, inspirational campaigns, marketers can build awareness for 2026.
According to our data, over 50% of winter holiday flights are booked more than two months in advance. However, with 37% of international flight searches still undecided, airlines have a powerful late-season opportunity. Flash sales tied to Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Travel Tuesday can move high-intent shoppers quickly. Canada, accounting for 16.9% of flight bookings, remains a high-potential inbound market. What’s more, travelers are exploring destinations in Asia for the Chinese New Year at the end of November, highlighting a key opportunity to drive bookings.
Midscale properties often operate at 47% margins and are better positioned to serve the value-first traveler than luxury hotels. Bundled offers (room + breakfast + Wi-Fi + late checkout) can make “smart luxury” feel premium without the price shock.
Solo travelers also deserve dedicated campaigns and targeted Travel Tuesday offers. And don’t overlook Canadian snowbirds: targeted winter escape deals can help fill rooms in off-peak weeks.
Cruises are the only major travel sector showing triple-digit growth rates in some segments. Position them as the hotel alternative, with known costs, and a stress-free multi-gen solution. And don’t miss the November booking surge: Travel Tuesday promotions with onboard credits or no single supplement deals can tap into solo travelers and repeat cruisers alike.
For marketers, this means retooling campaign calendars. Peak conversion days are no longer just around Christmas; they’re anchored in late November flash sales that capture the value-first mindset when urgency is at its highest.
The opportunity in Q4 isn’t just sector-specific—it’s integrated. Flight + hotel + cruise packages tied to Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Travel Tuesday create the perfect storm: urgency, value, and simplicity. This approach meets the 2025 traveler exactly where they are—budget-conscious but experience-hungry, strategic but spontaneous when the right offer comes along.
Bottom line for brands:
Holiday 2025 isn’t a “more of the same” year. The data is telling us travelers are making decisions later, chasing peak-deal days, and favoring predictable costs over unplanned indulgences. For marketers who can pivot from selling the dream to delivering the smart—especially in the critical late-November sales window—the next few months could deliver record returns even in a cooling market.
This holiday season, travel marketers will be vying for dollars that travelers will discernibly spend. With our travel intent data and custom audiences, we can help you better understand what they want and where they are in the path to purchase, so you can get on their radar earlier.
Are you ready to connect with travelers sooner? Let’s chat.
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